aptioning sponsod by macneil/lehrer productions >> woodruff: new evidence surfaced today that iran may be accelerating its nuclear weapons program. good evening. i'm judy woodruff. >> brown: and i'm jeffrey brown. on the newshour tonight, we examine the gathering suspicions and heightened tensions between tehran and the west. >> woodruff: then, we get the latest on the lifetime ban from cycling imposed on lance armstrong after he ended his fight against doping charges. >> brown: ray suarez marks a milestone in the afghanistan war as the death toll for u.s. troops hit 2,000 this week.

>> woodruff: while delegates gather for the g.o.p. convention, paul solman is on the ground talking to business owners about taxes, regulation, and the party's platform. >> in tampa florida, the republicans make their economic case. at thunder shirts, accoustablock and the convention hall. >> brown: and mark shields and david brooks analyze the week's news. >> woodruff: that's all ahead on tonight's newshour. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: bnsf railway. carnegie corporation >> and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and...

>> this program was made poibley thcorpatiofor public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. >> woodruff: new concerns were raised today that iran is expanding its nuclear weapons research and fuel production, and international monitors pressed the islamic republic to explain its actions at meetings in vienna. today's talks at the international atomic energy agency sought expanded access to iran's nuclear facilities, and came amid revelations that the i.a.e.a. will soon report that iran has installed hundreds of new uranium-enriching centrifuges. the machines are reportedly in an underground facility at iran's fordow nuclear site, south of tehran. iran maintains its nuclear

program is for peaceful energy production purposes, a claim widely dismissed by regional actors and the west. the i.a.e.a.'s concerns, first reported by reuters, heightened already-tense dealings with tehran at a time when international talks are at an impasse, sanctions are biting heavily into iran's economy and oil production, and talk of military action by israel to halt iran's nuclear program ratchets back up. indeed, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said today, "we received additional proof that iran is continuing accelerated progress towards achieving nuclear weapons, and is totally ignoring international demands." on tuesday, iran unveiled an updated model of a short-range, surface-to-surface ballistic missile, the fateh 110. that's farsi for "conqueror". iran's president, mahmoud

ahmadinejad, said it was a purely defensive weapon. >> ( translated ): we want it to defend ourselves and our human dignity, not in an aggressive context, but as a deterrence. >> woodruff: a campaign of covert cyber-attacks against iran has been conducted by the united states and israel. code-named "olympic games", it disabled thousands of centrifuges at iranian nuclear facilities. several iranian nuclear scientists have also been assassinated in recent years; suspicion in those attacks has fallen largely on israeli intelligence. >> brown: margaret warner takes it from there. >> warner: leonard spector is at the monterey institute of international studies, as deputy chief of its non-proliferation center. he held a similar post at the department of energy during the second clinton administration. welcome, mr. specter. so what's the significance of these reports f true that the iaea has found hundreds

of centrifuges. >> this a plant everybody is very nervous about. it's buried and very difficult to attack because of this, it is in a mountainside as we heard. the number of units in the plant are going up steadily and nothing we seem to be doing such as export controls, interdictions, sanctions seems to be slowing the program down. and at this rate the plant will be completed and fully with 3,000 centrifuges by the end of the year. >> warner: and is that faster than anticipated? >> i think there was some hesitation because it looked as if they had all of these empty casings for the centrifuges and now they are filling them. some this thought that they really didn't sd not have that ability. and that's a very negative development. >> warner: part of the report is also said-- to say that iran has particularly stepped up its production of this richer grade of uranium, 20% level. what does that tell new. >> well, it is something at mesouervous because this is a big

steppingstone toward the development of weapon grade uranium which is about 90% enriched but the hardest part of the enrichment process in the lower numbers. once you get to 20% you can move up the ladder very rapidly. and that is the kind of stockpile they are building and making everybody very worried. >> so what does this do, you heard, we ran a quote from prime minister netanyahu of israel, about we've heard the reports. what does this do to the calculation of other players involved in this? particularly israel. >> i think israel is getting very nervous as this plant comes to completion. it has a reason to be. and of course their initial reaction in the sense is to think about military action. we don't want to see that, certainly, because we have been embroiled in two wars in the region. the country is weary of this. and that is not a direction we want to takement but the pressures of the election here and the pressures from israel may be very strong and create a new kind of dynamism. >> explain why the addition

of more centrifuges. would that advance the timetable by which iran could, if they took the political decision, to produce a nuclear weapon from all of this, does it advance that timetable? >> it would eventually. in other words, as the stockpile grows up to 20% enriched uranium then they can rapidly upgrade it and the more centrifuges that they have for that upgrading process, the faster it goes. so we could be talking about a matter of months to get that done, getting the weapon grade material whereas now it might take let's say a year or something of that kind. >> so when people talk about the breakt sort of moment, what are they talking about? is that the period between when they decide they're going to the weapons and they can actually produce it? >> that's right so they don't want a small stockpile. i think if they have one nuclear weapon they become a target. if they have a dozen other people they become targets. so i think what you will see here from the iranian side is to build up the stockpile of the 20% material as

rapidly as possible, get the facilities ready for the next stage, which they're doing, and then when the moment is right, take the plunge. not yet but certainly you can see it in the oing. and th m decide to hold but hold in a position that will make everybody very, very nervous as long as they are on the verge of. >> particularly israel. >> absolutely. >> which you said they don't want to see it get to that point. >> finally today at this meeting between the weapons inspectors, the year-end weapons inspectors and in iran and vienna, they were also apparently very focused on trying to access to a wol different site. what was that about? >> that's the site where iran claims it was attempting to develop artificial diamonds using an explosive technique that is used in nucar apon which is to crush a sphere or in the case of the artificial diamond, the diamond dust they are trying to get, a different shape. but they use a schfear call tool, set of explosive lenses to do the job.

the individual teaching them learned his trade in the russian nuclear weapon program and then supposedly was trying to develop this commercial application. so what, the reason the site is so important is that if there are traces of uranium in the res i due of whatever is left at the site as they are cleaning it up t will be e oking n, se real hard evidence that this is a nuclear weapon program and not an innocent site nor are the other sites innocent. >> the satellite photos show attempts to clean it up. >> there is now, the site has been raised and now there is a tarp over it. elevated. and they are doing more cleanup but the iaea has very sensitive instruments and i think the iranians want to get the job done before they let the iaei in. >> leonard spector of the monterey institute, thank you. >> woodruff: still to come on the newshour: the end to a fight against doping charges; a milestone in the afghan war; the republicans' economic agenda; plus, shields and brooks.

but first, the other news of the day. here's kwame holman. >> holman: a court in norway ruled today that anders breivik was sane when he killed 77 people in a bombing and shooting rampage last year. he was sentenced to 21 years in prison, the maximum under norwegian law. we have a report from emma murphy of independent television news. >> it's responsible for europe's worst peacetime atrocity and yet he swag erred and smirked his way into court. it was of course his trademark clenched fist is a loot. and then he turned to face the families of the dead and the victims who had survived his attack. the smile as he turned back chilling even to those who had not suffered at his hands. and then that smile again as judges ruled he was sane when he committed his crimes. it was just the result he wanted. as he refused to acknowlee the court because it stood

for multiculturism he apologized to a translator for not killing more. >> in my view this sentence and judgement is il legitimate. at the same time i cannot appeal against the judgement because by appealing i would legitimize the court. i would like to end with an expression of regret and apologize to all militant nationalists in norway and in europe. >> the judgement saw him sentenced to 21 years in prison for this bomb attack in oslo from which he fled dressed in a fake police uniform. and for attack on the island. the harrowing description of how 69 young people were slain was outlined by judges. even then brevik was unmoved it took over three hours for the court to hear how each of the 77 victims died. individual descriptions for individual lives and deaths. people like elizabeth, she was 16 and shot three times as she tried to run from

brevik. her father told me his feels towards her killing after thhearing. >> he is a sick man, evil, sick maniac. >> reporter: there is a hope here in norway that prison will not just protect the public from his actions, but also his beliefs. he will not be allowed to define this country's future as he has its recent past. >> holman: breivik's sentence could be extended if he's later found too dangerous to be released. he said he would not appeal the sentence. a chaotic scene unfolded this morning on a crowded sidewalk outside new york's empire state building. a man opened fire with a handgun. he killed one person, a former co-worker, before being shot to death by police. the gunman, authorities said, was a clothing designer who was fired a year ago. at least nine people were wounded after police confronted the man on fifth avenue. new york mayor michael bloomberg

said they may have been struck by police gunfire. >> there were a number of shots fired. the perpetrators clearly turned his gun on the police and tried to shoot them, whether he got off any bullets, we just don't know yet. the cops returned fire killing him. that's what wenow. and that everybody else that was shot was just grazed or is going to survive. there's no reason to think that any of them were that serious. >> holman: separately, in chicago, 19 people were shot and wounded in a spate of incidents overnight. eight of them were shot on a single street in a drive-by shooting. chicago authorities are battling an increase in homicides, many gang-related. tropical storm isaac lashed the caribbean today, swirling over haiti and the dominican republic. projections show isaac will gain hurricane status over the gulf of mexico and eventually make landfall again near the alabama/mississippi border. but tampa, florida-- site of next week's republican national convention-- remains vulnerable. the national hurricane center's director, rick knabb, said isaac's potential is unknown.

>> we don't know quite frankly exactly what shape isaac will be in when it emerges somewhere north of cuba. over the weekend or late in the weekend. so there's both track and intensity uncertainty here. and that is why we can't pinpoint any one spot in south florida or any one spot elsewhere in florida that would receive the strongest winds or heaviest rains and flooding and highest storm surge as long the coast >> holman: florida governor rick scott and republican officials said there are no plans to cancel next week's convention. the issue of president obama's citizenship bubbled up again today in the campaign. g.o.p. presidential candidate mitt romney was rallying in his home state, michigan, alongside running-mate paul ryan when romney made this quip about his own birth certificate. >> now i love being home in this place where ann and i were raised where both of us were born. ann was born in henry ford

hospital, i was born at harper hospital. no one has ever asked to see my wirth certificate, they know that this is the place that we were born and raised. >> holman: hawaii officials repeatedly have verified president obama's birthplace and citizenship in the face of accusations he was not born in the u.s. the obama campaign immediately condemned romney's comment, saying in a statement, "romney's decision to directly enlist himself in the birther movement should give pause to any rational voter across america." romney has said in the past he believes the president was born in the united states. the author of a purported first- hand account of the u.s. raid that killed osama bin laden may be investigated for failing to clear his book with the pentagon first. "no easy day" is set to be released on september 11 by dutton publishing. reportedly, it was written under a pseudonym by one of the members of the navy team that conducted the raid. fox news identified him yesterday. preorders for the book moved it to the top-selling slot on amazon today.

stocks did a turnaround on wall street today after a letter to congress surfaced in which federal reserve chairman ben bernanke again indicated the fed may do more to spur the economy. the dow jones industrial average gained more than 100 points to close just under 13,158. the nasdaq rose 16 points to close above 3,069. but for the week, the dow lost nearly 1%; the nasdaq fell two-tenths of a percent. those are some of the day's major stories. now, back to jeff. >> brown: "there comes a time in every man's life when he has to say, 'enough is enough'. for me, that time is now." the words of cycling legend lance armstrong in a statement announcing he will no longer fight charges that he used performance-enhancing drugs. armstrong achieved what no cyclist in history had ever done-- winning the grueling tour de france, his sport's premier event, seven straight times, from 1999 to 2005. and he did all that after beating stage-three testicular

cancer, and forming his foundation, with its popular "livestrong" bracelets. it all made him one of the most famous and most followed athletes in the world. but for more than a decade, armstrong has also been shadowed by accusations that he'd used drugs to give him a competitive advantage; charges he repeatedly denied. >> we have nothing to hide, we have nothing to run from. >> brown: in june, the u.s. anti-doping agency, or usada, formally charged armstrong with using banned substances and conspiring with teammates in a systematic doping scheme. the agency said it had at least ten former teammates and colleagues of armstrong ready to testify to that effect. in a statement issued last night, armstrong maintained his innocence in what he called an "unconstitutional" probe, and said "i refuse to participate in a process that is so one-sided and unfair." but john fahey, president of the world anti-doping agency, made

clear how he read armstrong's statement. >> his failure to rebut the charges, those very serious charges, mean that he's effectively acknowledging that they had substance. brown: and usa chief avis tygart, calling it a "sad day," said: "this is a heartbreaking example of how the win-at-all-costs culture of sport, if left unchecked, will overtake fair, safe and honest competition. armstrong now faces a lifelong ban on competing, and being stripped of past awards-- including his seven tour titles and a bronze medal he won at the 2000 olympic games. we get more now from david epstein, a senior writer for "sports illustrated." david this has gone on for a very long ti but fill in what is known now about the evidence that the u.s. anti-doping agency seems to have on armstrong. >> well, for the u.s. anti-doping agency of course was paying very close attention to a federal department of justice

investigation that was sort of spurred in the spring of 2010 when lance armstrong's former teammate floyd landies who was stripped of a tour de france win sent an e-mail to cycling observations saying look, here's how we were doping. here is how the program and the systems worked. and that launched a federal lawenfoemen investigation that was eventually dropped. but through that, teammates and associates of lance armstrong testified before a grand jury. and when that was dropped the u.s. anti-doping agency continued ahead, some of the people now having known that some of lance armstrong's associates and teammates had testified against him under oath, and so u.s. anti-doping agency pursued his teammates and associates who were willing to testify. some of whom had not had their reputations impugned before. and in addition to that, they have blood tests from 2009 a 2010 when he returned to cycling that they say show fluctuations of blood parameters

consistent with blood doping. so the u.s. anti-doping agency is saying we have testimoniment we also have analytical findings. >> so he has denied it before. he defies it still and yet he's announced he is to the going to fight it. so what are people you talk to make of this. what is going on? >> so first of all i think this, for the decade or more these's been facing allegations, people have had a lot of time toet in either camp. thin where some people have said hey, look, we don't believe this guy. you know, finally, and other people have said this has been a witch-hunt, even if he was doping so was everybody else. and then there's sort of the swing voters. and i think for people who are on the fence, this will look like an admission of guilt for those people on the fence. because procedurally speaking that's what it is. it is akin to a no contest plea in a court of law. >> we mentioned usda the world anti-doping agency and various other cycling agencies and other sporting authorities.

it's colicated system but is this over? are there, is there room for appeal or is this where it ends? >> well, it's sort of over in one sense, in the sense that since the international cycling union which was, you know, trying to sort of assert its power to handle this case, is a signatory to the world anti-doping agency code. and given that the cycling union is a voluntary signatory they sort of have to follow through the process of now stripping him of his tour de france titles and he forfeits his wiings and things like that. that said, there are still other officials from the postal service cycling team have decided to go forward with the arbitration process. so there is still going to be a hearing, so there still could be presentation of evidence that sort of less directly reflects lance armstrong. and not to mention, there may be ex-sponsors now who will look to do what they call claw back sponsorship money, particularly in insurance company that had once tried before to deny

him money based on the suggestion that he was doping. and not to mention other things that might come into the public sector like a book that's coming out with more information from lance's former teammate tyler hamilton. >> that is what i was wondering about, the future consequences and implications for him. so it stripped of title, it's noncompeting. but there are financial issues involved. and of course his reputation. >> absolutely. so it is going to effect, even just his retirement from cycling the first time around affected the revenues of his foundation, so you a would assume his forced retirement. he was competing as a professional triathlete so he would still even serate as triaelete der e puiew of the anti-doping agency and now he is banned from that as well. so for all intensive purpose his career as a professional athlete which he said he was continuing in order to draw attention to his foundation is over. >> and in our last minute here, just think about the consequences for the sport itself. i mean there have been a lot

of other cases, nobody quite as high profile as armstrong, but what is thought to be the state of doping and drug use in the sport today? >> well, so still i would say t rutationof anti-doping technology still sort of far exceeds its capabilities. there's a lot of room to dope without testing positive. at the same time cycling in the last two years has adopted the biological passport which is this system where there are numerous blood tests taken and parameters, blood markers are the fluctuations are tracked. so you don't have to directly detect a drug. and since that has been implemented, the power outputs of cyclists on money tag states has gone way down which is highly suggest their cycling has turned a corner in its efforts. either the cyclists areot tryi as hrd any more or it is more difficult for them to dope in the way they have in the past. >> all right, david epstein of "sports illustrated", thanks so much. >> brown: one more note-- earlier today, i talked about

armstrong and the sport with our own resident cycling expert, ray suarez. you'll find our conversation on our web site. >> woodruff: earlier this week, we reported a new milestone crossed in the war in afghanistan: the number of u.s. military deaths has surpassed 2,000. ray has the story behind the numbers. >> on my orders, the united states military has begun strikes against al qaeda terrorist training camps and military installations of the taliban regime in afghanistan. >> suarez: in 2001, president george w. bush launched "operation enduring freedom" more than a decade later, the u.s. is still fighting in afghanistan, and americans are still dying. while the numbers vary, the department of defense and others count at least 2,000 american military deaths since the war began.

the number includes suicides in afghanistan, but not those following service there. the death toll surpassed 1,000 back in 2010. that figure then doubled in just over two years after a major escalation. >> i have determined that it is in our vital national interest to send an additional 30,000 u.s. troops to afghanistan. so that they can target the insurgency and secure key population centers. >> suarez: what was called the "surge" sent more troops into dangerous taliban territory. philip carter, a senior fellow with the center for a new american security who served nine years as an army military police and civil affairs officer, including one year in iraq. >> it's a very infantry-centric war. >> suarez: carter says that jump in deaths is easy to understand when you look at the increase in the numbers, what the surge

forces were asked to do and where. >> the fighting is concentrated in those places in afghanistan that are most difficult to fight in-- the plains of helmand, where we're really talking about canal to canal, or house to house fighting; the mountains of eastern afghanistan, where we see bloody combat reminiscent of vietnam or, in some cases, even of korea. very difficult to evacuate troops from if they're hurt, and that results in a high number of casualties for those troops committed to those areas. >> suarez: the rising death toll also shed light on one milary branch's role in the war. >> most of these casualties in that second thousand occurred in the south, and that's where some of the most bloody fighting with the taliban occur. it's also where the marine corps put the majority of its effort, and i think that's why the marines disproportionately suffer more dead than the army or the navy or the air force. >> suarez: the web site icasualties.org lists two southern provinces, helmand and

kandahar, as those with the most coalition fatalities during the war. department of defense data also shows that the majority of americans killed were white men. most were active-duty soldiers as opposed to reservists, and between 25 and 30 years old. still, the american death toll in afghanistan is less than half that from the war in iraq. the u.s. military effort there ended in december 2011. >> in iraq, you had a much larger force go in and in a much more violent way, initially, than you had in afghanistan. then, that large force stayed for year after year after year with 120,000 - 150,000 troops on the ground. iraq, for a long time, was emphasized as the main effort, and afghanistan was always seen as the supporting effort, and that drove the resourcing for that war. it also, i think, drives the casualty numbers, that we're only now reaching a place in afghanistan that we reached in iraq many years ago.

>> suarez: carter says the face of today's military force in afghanistan is also much different, particularly when it comes to women, 36 of whom were killed in afghanistan. >> women have served our country extraordinarily well in afghanistan, and they have served alongside and in some cases died alongside with their male colleagues and brethren. when it comes to serving in combat, and particularly in arduous conditions where you can be killed, gender fades away and it's all about whether you can do the job or whether you can't. >> suarez: as the war in afghanistan enters its eleventh year, u.s. military forces have begun to draw down, with afghan forces taking full control of security by the end of 2014. but some fear those americans on the ground today may be forgotten. last week, defense secretary leon panetta called for the country's renewed attention. >> i thought it was important to remind the american people that

there is a war going on in afghanistan, and that young men and women are dying in order to try to protect this country. >> suarez: the afghan people are in crossfire of those same battles, and afghan security forces are seeing more deaths in their ranks. civilian casualties have gone down this year compareto 2011, but remain high. the united nations reported just under 3,100 afghan civilians were killed or wounded through june, 30% of them women and children. >> brown: and now to a question- - how might mitt romney's policies impact the economy? our economics correspondent, paul solman, went to the city hosting next week's g.o.p. convention to find out. it's part of paul's ongoing reporting, "making sense of financial news."

>> reporter: at the tampa bay times forum this week, lights, cameras, and lots of action, as workers put the finishing touches on the set for next week's republican convention. john mccain's economic advisor four years ago, douglas holtz- eakin, agreed to fly to tampa to explain this election's agenda. what's the essence of-- im going to use the old gag-- the economic platform of the republican party this time around? >> it's a return to reliance on the private sector, a return to government that's small, contained and knows its role in society. >> reporter: so does that mean shrinking government? >> well, in some cases, it's addition by subtraction, frankly. we've seen an enormous regulatory expansion in the four years of the obama administration. republicans are interested in rolling that back and making it far more benign to the average

business. >> reporter: isn't degulation, lack of regulation, what caused or helped precipitate the crash of '08 to begin with? >> much like the crash of 2008, where there was some under- regulation but also some over- regulation. we forced fannie mae and freddie mac to issue mortgages to people who couldn't afford them. >> reporter: folks argue over fannie and freddie's role in the crash. but a crash there was, and the housing market is only now stabilizing in tampa. the president's efforts didn't exactly right the ship, says broker ken harrelon, who calls himself "doctor real estate." >> the home loan modification program was a disaster. >> reporter: and you're still suffering from that here in tampa? >> current homeowners that can't modify would be suffering. they're either selling on a short sale or being forced into a foreclosure situation. >> reporter: so the critical policy, says holtz-eakin, is not too little regulation or too much. >> the issue is smart regulation, and to actually be

very disciplined in the places where you get into the regulatory initiatives and make sure the regulations make sense. >> repter: and every fr years, people from both parties tell me there will be smarter regulation next time around. >> hope springs eternal. but there's also just magnitudes involved. the obama administration exceeded the regulatory output of the bush administration when it was doing all the post-9/11 anti-terrorism efforts. i never thought we'd see a regulatory impetus bigger than that. if you talk to the average businessman, they're drowning in it. >> reporter: in fact, we did talk to a few avere republican businessmen here in tampa. kevin wright turns out t-shirts for the faithful. >> yeah, the local republican party generally comes to us each year and orders more shirts for the different events that they have, mostly for volunteers to wear in the field.

>> reporter: and the other t- shirt you had over there you were showing me? >> well, this shirt is "oba- mao." and it might come to... >> reporter: "obam..."? >> "oba-mao." >> reporter: "oba-mao." >> yeah. i ripped this design off of a chinese entrepreneur. >> reporter: reverse piracy. >> yes, reverse piracy. >> reporter: it's the support of small business that makes wright, who campaigned for al gore in 1988, a republican in 2012. >> i really think that the president doesn't get the amount of determination and tenacity it takes to survive in business. >> reporter: big government is keeping this small businessman down, says wright. he dreams of expanding to 50 employees. how many people you got here? >> right now? three. >> reporter: and if you go to 50? >> then a whole new set of regulations kick in. i've got to go to school with an accountant and a bunch of other people to advise and to, you

know, move me through that step. >> reporter: as difficult as investing to enlarge the business. >> you can see from this piece of equipment here, it's desperately in need of refurbishment. >> reporter: it could probably use a little bit of cleaning, too, if you don't mind my saying. >> cleaning is not a problem. >> reporter: the problem is confidence, says wright. deregulate, cut taxes, and he'd invest. >> it would cost me about $4,000 to replace this piece of equipment. i'm not willing to make a $4,000 expense until i'm certain that i have the confidence going forward for at least six years that the equipment cost would take to pay back. >> reporter: back at the convention hall, douglas holtz- eakin said such confidence depends on the prime mover of republican economics-- across- the-board tax cuts, which both mitt romney and his vice presidential pick, paul ryan, have separately proposed. >> the first oective has to be growth. this is where america is failing right now. it's the worst recovery from a

recession since the great depression. >> reporter: but the tax plan, either romney's plan as it was originally articulated, or ryan's plan as it passed the house, is a huge cut in the top marginal rate, which has been scored to cost more than $4 trillion over the next ten years. >> i take all of those numbers with a grain of salt. i've made up a lot of numbers in my ceer. i don't pay too much attention to that. i look at the quality of the reforms being proposed, and all of them are very close cousins to the bowles-simpson commission, which i think is fabulous, because bowles-simpson was the one moment in a very partisan environment where we got republicans and democrats to agree on a package. and that package included lower marginal rates, broader bases, and they raised more revenues as well. >> reporter: i haven't been covering economics for quite this long, but over the last 100 years, this is close to the

lowest top marginal rate we've ever had. a little lower for a few years, under reagan, 28%, but only for a few years. and its been as high as 90% or north of 90% from the mid-'40s all the way to kennedy, all the way through the eisenhower administration. so are we really going to get more growth by cutting the marginal top rate? >> no single policy, in and of itself, is the magic for growth. if we knew the one lever to pull, we would have pulled it. there's a lot of evidence that higher marginal rates deter people from working as much, from investing efficiently. it leads to a premium on having a clever tax attorney instead of doing your job. that's the reason you want to get rates down. >> reporter: of course, democrats contend that lower rates wouldn't solve any problems, would add to them, in fact, by swelling the deficit, forcing us to cut spending. >> this is all destined to go to saudi arabia.

>> reporter: really? all of this is going to saudi arabia? >> in saudi arabia, it's absolutely almost a sin to hear through a wall, a man and woman on the other side of a wall. >> reporter: lonnie johnson makes acousti-blok. sheets of the rubbery product are encased in walls. acousti-blok dazzles with its ability to muffle the loud. ( shouts ) it can even mute the 120 decibels blaring continuously from johnson's senor wences-like demo device. johnson favors tax cuts, says they surely shouldn't stop at president obama's proposed $250,000 limit. that would penalize small business owners like him who report profit as personal

income. >> a lot of that may have gone back into the business, you know, to expand the business, which still shows up as profit. and every businessperson keeps putting money back in. so its... $250,000 is not that much for a corporation and a personal income. >> reporter: worse still, he sees his taxes funding government programs that create perverse incentives not to work. >> i have had people that we had had to lay off, and i've called them back, and they're kind of, like, saying "i'd have to put in 40 hours a week, and i'd be making only a little bit more than what i am now, and i'd lose all my subsidies and all the entitlements." >> reporter: and people have said that to you? >> oh, absolutely. >> reporter: and if a republican administration came in, what do you expect would happen? >> i think you would see an immediate turnaround. >> reporter: johnson lauds other features of the republican

economic policy-- more drilling for fossil fuels; no subsidies for "green" energy, which he calls "brown"; no government programs like high-speed rail meant to modernize travel here in tampa, which governor rick scott nixed, even though johnson said he stood to make millions, selling his sound panels to reduce t noise. but in the end, it all adds up to the theme of this convention- - an anti-big-government, pro- small business philosophy we'll be hearing a lot about in tampa next week. >> woodruff: and to the analysis of shields and brooks-- syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times" columnist david brooks. gentlemen, welcome, together again and it's finally here. we're almost at the convention. where are the party hats? (laughter)

>> okay so, the republicans start on monday, david, what's the state of the race right now? >> close. it's been close. but it's especially close in the last week or so. i guess would you say the polls have and up a little so if you took the average of big recent polls maybe romney is down a point. and so that's pretty good for romney considering all the stuff that has happened especially. and so we go into the conventions and look for bounces. and the average bounce is about 4 or 5 points. and so the record bounce of bill clinton's first bounce but what happened when ross per os pulled out. generally you get five. >> five being a lifts in the polls. >> that's right, a bouncing lift so i'm very curious to know if he gets that five. and there are two countertrends here. the first is the electorate has been so rigid the entire race, maybe there is just no bounce because everybody is sort of locked in. on the other hand, i genuinely think that romney is unknown, really, really unknown considering the fact that he has been running for

president since the 19th century or something like that. so if he makes himself known, and i'm not sure if he can do that, but if he does he has a potential to get a bounce as people say oh, he's not so bad. >> woodruff: because you think they will like what they learn. >> i look at the favor able, it's a big issue. here is my personal opinion. i look at the favor able. obama has a 23% point advantage on dow like the guy. i have interviewed both of these people a lot. maybe obama is more likable, it's not that much more likable. romney is a pretty decent guy so, i think there is some upside there, that's my personal opinion. >> woodruff: so mark, you know whatever romney's task is, do you agree with david that the race is tight? romney has picked up a little bit. >> yes, i will say this, the formulation of this race is that if president obama is re-elected on november 6th it will be primarily because he ran against mitt romney. if he were running unopposed,

2012 would be a very tough fight for him. i mean i think david's right. the race is close. i think that tells you how vulnerable the president is with only 43% of the voters think he deserves re-election, by a 2 to 1 margin people think the country is headed in the wrong direction. but romney has essentially wasted the four months he had from the time he became the de facto nominee. he has not filled in, there are two things people want to know. what kind of a guy is he, who is he. he has not revealed himself. and he has a special problem because he only had one term in public office. during which he was pro-choice on abortion, he was pro gun control, he was pro environment, a geenie, and in addition he offered the mandatory health insurance that everybody had to buy with a public subsidy. but that is the only public record and he's totally moved away from that. people don't know who he is. and they don't have, they

want to have a sense of what kind of a guy he is. what kind of a person he is. and what he's going to do. he hasn't filled that in at all and let the obama campaign fill in a lot of it. >> i was doing a google search looking for information and came across a column i wrote in 2007. of course i reread what i wrote. and it was this. it was like how come he doesn't tell us who he is. so that was 2007. it's been five years since then. >> woodruff: about romney. >> and he still hasn't done that. so maybe there is nobody in the house. but i don't know, we'll see. >> woodruff: why is he doing so well then if he hasn't told us who he is? >> i think it's quite honestly because the president is in a tough situation. the president has a ceiling, you have to believe those polls, about 48 and the president hasn't broken through to 50, 51. d you know, judy, i mean the country is headed in the wrong direction. people don't, are not optimistic about the future. they don't have confidence,

i mean two out of three voters do not have confidence that the president's policies and plans will move us economically, three out of four people don't have confidence this is a "the wall street journal" poll that romney's plans will. so i mean you know, it challenges a special responsibility to say this is where we're going. this is how we're going to get there. and he has not done that and plus he is somebody who is quite awkward, think, on the public platform. it is not an ease, i think the president's ease of manner, his comfort with himself and in his own skin is what works for him in likability and plus absolutely winning smile. >> and david, su have been away a couple of weeks. haven't had a chance to ask you about the romney choice of paul ryan, has that changed the dime snick. >> first of all i thought it was substantively heroic because ryan does give some-- my first reaction was political disaster for two reasons. why, house republicans are the most unpopular group in america. and he's a house republican.

so i thought romney had to distance himself. two, medicare is a really popular program. i think it's a completely unsustainable program that has to befundamentallically changed but it is really popular. so you are tying yourself to two losing issues. having said that, at least in the couple weeks since ryan has been picked, that nightmare scenario has not hurt romney, in part because one thing i didn't appreciate f people see romney as this flip-flopper who will just be for whatever is popular, picking ryan, going into that medicare moreas wasctually a sign o somteal there. and so it sort of has hasn't been so bad and i think ryan is pretty effective. >> woodruff: like the democrats thought or many of them were saying that they thought the medicare issue would work to their advantage. >> well, it does work-- i mean i think the democrats have made a terrible mistake this week quite honestly on the todd aiken thing. they chased todd aikin balloon. >> the comment about abortion. >> stupid, ludicris, indefensible, you know, wrong. but you can't expand him

into this campaign. i just thinkhat medicare ga youa chance, judy, to break into the one age cohort that john mccain carried in 2008. over the age of 65. a preeminent prominent republican said to me this week that are you doing politics, everybody knows who is in office and that is everybody likes med quarter. even the tea party people say keep your hands-off my medicare. i mean they like medicare. and once you start, david's right about financing problems and so forth. but by every measurement it works for the democrats and cuts into that constituency. >> you're saying they got off, and they started going todd aikin, asking him to expand that into a national issue. i mean it doesn't have the legs. i mean it's not an unimportant issue, don't get me wrong but it doesn't have the universal appeal that medicare-- you would have paul ryan having to spend the first third of his speech next week in tampa,

defending and explaining his medicare. any time you explain medicare are you losing. >> you don't think that's going to happen. >> i think it will happen. i agree withark, they got off message this week but they have a bunch of weeks left and it will come back. >> agree spending time talking about the todd aikin was the wrong thing to do. >> let's remember, campaigns don't matter that much. they move a few percentage points. but the things that mat never campaigns are not the indignation of the day. so whatever he says, it's-- it's pobting to a real issue that people can relate to i think school loans probably matter, taxes matter, jobs and medicare matter. >> one thing t gave the democrats a chance t put e repuicans in its house in play. in other words, in other words, you could make this a issue that goes from the president all the way through to every house race, who do you trust that's going protect, preserve and strengthen medicare. the guys who want to turn it

into a voucher. and i just think that was a winner and i think they moved away from that. i think they had a great opportunity to define paul ryan and they won't have that chance again in the same way that they would. >> so speaking of comments that come up, the president today jumped all over, david, the governor romney's comment about the president, birth place, you know, nobody will ever doubt where ann and i were born, in michigan the press jumped on that. i hear the two of you saying that kind of thing with all the, whatever it stirs up s just doesn't make any difference in the end. >> it certainly doesn't. i think if jay leno would make the joke none of us think it nonetheless i think romney shouldn't have said it, it is demeaning, he is running for office, just don't go there. but people vote on the fundamentals t is the presidency, they they will vote on al stuff. the campaigns have their black per ease and cell phones and react to the indignation of the day, but i really think there is indignation fat agency. and people just, i'm so

angry about that but i'm having trouble. >> the shortest book in america is the rib tickling one-liners of mitt romney. he is not a funny man. he is not a naturally funny man, he should not try to be funny. this was i think a fail add tempt at humor on his part. plus he should not be talking about releasing documents. i mean whether it's a birth certificate because then you're into mitt, dow want to talk about your tax returns. so it was just this is the awkwardness, i mean, people don't want to be wincing for the next four years while the president is trying to be funny or easy or flib or quick, and so i think that's why this convention, this tampa week is so important for him. you have to come out of there with yeah, i know we are wants to g it makes since to-- sense to me and he is a good guy, he's not a-- not a best buddy but at least i'm comfortable with him. >> the picture of who he is, however they choose to do it. >> fst the comfort level. it's like a musical ability

like governor christie has it it's reading a crowd and being in sympathy with the emotionaal tides of people around you that is part of what people want. but they just want to know, he has many acts of kindnesses in his life. somehow that's not known. he has got to get that out. and then just i'm a normal person. i'm not just rich and cold. i'm not just a human e sell spreadsheet. he's somehow got to get through that. >> is that easy for them to do or hard for them to do? >> well, he's never done it t this is a man who has been runninfor president easily for eight years and he's failed to do it so far. he's not comfortable talk being his business career. so the democrats and the obama campaign have filled in the details on that but it's outsourcing, he's not comfortable talking about his faith. he started to do that in sort of a halting way. but it's obviously central to his life. he's not comfortable talking about his governorship. so i don't flow what he is comfortable talking about. i guess his kids and his wife. >> he loves, faith is the

key. he is not just a mormon, he's an important figure in the mormon church, he has devoted to hours a week year after year to it, he has really got to talk about that. listen, i admire reticence, i'm not a big believer in the expose all culture, but it is 2012, you have to run in the times are you given and he has to do more self-exposure as much as he hates it, it, and am that i like him for the spill your guts sort of deal. >> woodruff: we are looking forward to spending a lot of time with the two of you monday night gwen and i will be joined at the hip for two whole weeks. thank you, gentlemen. see you then. later tonight online, you can watch mark and david in the "doubleheader." and for a quick look ahead at next week's conventions and what the newshour has in store for you, here's hari sreenivasan in florida. >> sreenivasan: hi, judy. i'm in miami working on a climate change story now, but in a few days, i'll be seeing you here in the sunshine state to begin our coverage of the back- to-back political conventions. at the tampa bay times forum,

republicans are putting the finishing touches on their multi-million-dollar stage set, designed to be an image of warmth and openness. this is where mitt romney will accept his party's official nomination for the presidency at the end of the four-day convention that begins monday. the following week, in charlotte, it is the democrats' turn, starting september 4. as he did four years ago, president obama will take the convention outside, and will accept the democratic party's re-nomination. the parties have been preparing for the conventions for quite some time, and so has the newshour. so what's in store for you, the viewer? this year, we are offering an all-access pass to the conventions, both on air and online. gwen ifill and judy woodruff will be co-anchoring the newshour's regular broadcast and convention specials, and they'll be joined by mark shields and david brooks for the civil analysis you know and trust. our coverage will be front and center on our home page all day every day, and this is a way of covering the conventions the

newshour has never tried before- - live-streaming video across the internet. 24 hours a day, our live-stream will showcase the best of our political coverage, field reports from our teams on the ground, as well as content you'll only see online, including the political checklist with gwen, judy and christina. and i'll be hosting the "doubleheader" with mark shields and david brooks. the newshour's broadcast coverage will kick off with gwen and judy in our skybox in the tampa bay times forum. jeffrey brown and ray suarez will be floor reporters in tampa and charlotte. they'll be talking with key convention speakers and showing you delegate reaction to what's happening on the stage. i'll bring you our daily map center moment, telling the story of the campaign through data and highlighting voter's voices through our "listen to me" project. we'll take our viewers behind the scenes ande'll talk to the newsmakers. see you there. >> woodruff: and a reminder-- the newshour airs at 6:00 p.m. eastern time, and our convention

coverage follows at 8:00 p.m. eastern. the republicans will formally kick off their proceedings and the roll call to nominate mitt romney monday at 2:00 p.m. eastern. we'll have every moment for you on our livestream coverage online that hari mentioned. >> brown: again, the major developments of the day: new evidence surfaced that iran may be accelerating its nuclear weapons program. retired cyclist lance armstrong faces a lifelong ban from the sport and being stripped of his seven tour de france titles after he said he would no longer challenge anti-doping charges. a court in norway sentenced anders breivik to 21 years in prison, the maximum allowed, in the deaths of 77 people last year. and there's late word that a verdict is near in the high- stakes patent trial pitting samsung vs. apple. check our web site later for the decision and details. also online, some questions to determine what kind of political animal you are. kwame holman explains. >> holman: take e 12-question

quiz on our politics page. it's part of a partnership with the pew research center that will play out on air and online over the next two weeks. plus, "this american life's' ira glass and comedian mike birbiglia talk about their new film. that's on "art beat." and tonight's edition of "need to know" looks at the republican effort to win swing state ohio this fall. find a link to "the battle for ohio" on our web site, plus much more at newshour.pbs.org. judy. >> woodruff: and that's the newshour for tonight. i'm judy woodruff. >> brown: and i'm jeffrey brown. our colleague gwen ifill's "washington week" has a special edition from florida later this evening. we'll see you from tampa monday- - online, on the newshour, and with our prime-time convention coverage. have a nice weekend. thank you and good night. >> major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: bnsf >> and by the bill and melinda gates foundation.

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